Other studies have used similar methodologies to measure the marginal deterrent effects of legislation across different
liability classes. Zimring, Hawkins, and Kamin used this methodology to conclude that the California “Three
Strikes” penalty enhancement law had a small deterrent effect. [FN35] Under the California Three Strikes Law, a
three-time felony offender faces a sentence of twenty-five years to life-significantly higher than the previous penalty
for many felony convictions. [FN36] The authors examined the proportion of felony offenders involving second and
third strikeeligible defendants. Although there was no change in the proportion of second-strike eligible defendants,
the “market share” of these third-strike eligible defendants shrank from 4.3% to 3.5% after the passage of the law.
[FN37] This is a modest but statistically significant indication that the California law had successfully deterred a certain
number of recidivist offenders.