O Innovative approach
We propose adopting an innovative approach to risk assessment which relies on monthly analysis, is physically-based, and accounts for the spatial heterogeneity of a basin. This means that the analysis is done on a sub-basin level, rather than considering a basin as one big homogenous system. After analysis, our purpose is to mitigate risks by initiating policies and measures that are tailor-made for individual areas.
Assessment of the monthly water balance, coupled with a scenario analysis of water supplies, is proposed for the risk assessment. Drought conditions occur when estimated demand is higher than water supply; conversely, flooding takes place when the water supply exceeds river or reservoir storage capacity. The unique combination of these analyses provides us with three key answers.
Q Types of local risk
Q Risk timeframes: We find that both flooding and drought occur in several sub-basins. In the north
east