Exports to show low to medium growth in 2015
The Nation January 28, 2015 1:28 pm
Thai economists expressed a mixed view on the export outlook this year, seeing low to medium growth after the contraction in 2014.
Siam Commercial Bank’s Economic Intelligence Centre expected exports to expand by only 0.8 per cent this year. Meanwhile, Tisco Securities forecast a 4 per cent growth rate thanks to contraction in the past two years as well as the strong economic recovery.
Coming with low growth rate, SCB said that the cheap oil prices would put pressure on Thailand’s refined oil and chemical exports as well as agricultural commodities like rubber and sugar. Together, they account for 15 per cent of total export value.
Meanwhile, demand in the Middle East, a major market for Thailand’s automotive and accessories, is also expected to drop, in line with the sliding demand in China. The termination in European Union’s privileges under the Generalised System of Preferences (GSP) would also hurt Thailand’s exports.
According to the Commerce Ministry, export value expanded by 1.9 per cent from the same period a year earlier to US$18.79 billion. However, the annualised value contracted by 0.4 per cent. Import value also dropped by 8.7 per cent in December, leading to 9 per cent contraction for the whole year. Thailand’s trade deficit for the whole year dropped to $378.7 million.
Exports to show low to medium growth in 2015
The Nation January 28, 2015 1:28 pm
Thai economists expressed a mixed view on the export outlook this year, seeing low to medium growth after the contraction in 2014.
Siam Commercial Bank’s Economic Intelligence Centre expected exports to expand by only 0.8 per cent this year. Meanwhile, Tisco Securities forecast a 4 per cent growth rate thanks to contraction in the past two years as well as the strong economic recovery.
Coming with low growth rate, SCB said that the cheap oil prices would put pressure on Thailand’s refined oil and chemical exports as well as agricultural commodities like rubber and sugar. Together, they account for 15 per cent of total export value.
Meanwhile, demand in the Middle East, a major market for Thailand’s automotive and accessories, is also expected to drop, in line with the sliding demand in China. The termination in European Union’s privileges under the Generalised System of Preferences (GSP) would also hurt Thailand’s exports.
According to the Commerce Ministry, export value expanded by 1.9 per cent from the same period a year earlier to US$18.79 billion. However, the annualised value contracted by 0.4 per cent. Import value also dropped by 8.7 per cent in December, leading to 9 per cent contraction for the whole year. Thailand’s trade deficit for the whole year dropped to $378.7 million.
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