1. Introduction
What caused the large exchange rate depreciations and stock market declines in some Asian countries during 1997-98? The three main explanations for the “Asian crisis” emphasize macroeconomic and baking issues. The standard Washington view attributes the Asian crisis to inappropriate macroeconomic policy during the 1990s, made worse by inept management of the initial depreciation in 1997 (Greenspan, 1998; Corsetti et al., 1998). In contrast, Radelet and Sachs (1998a,b) and Wade and Veneroso (1998) argue that the crisis began with a mild panic that had no real foundation and was made serious only by IMF pressure to increase interest rates and to close down banks. Krugman (1998) presents a third theory based on international bank behavior, arguing there was a “Pangloss equilibrium” that caused a bubble in asset prices. In his view, the Asian panics had their origins in implicit (and implausible) guarantees offered by governments and believed by investors.