The parameter estimates obtained for 1999/2000 are used to simulate indicators of
school achievement in 2015 under three alternative scenarios. All of these involves an
assumed change in each of nine predictor variables that were significant in the
estimated model. Consider the attendance equation. Here, these are adult schooling
amongst men and women, household consumption, annual public expenditure on
elementary education per 6-14 year-old child, and the following indicators of districtlevel
conditions: village access to pucca roads and electricity, the number of primary
schools per 1,000 children, the pupil-teacher ratio at the primary level, and crimes
against (kidnappings of) women and girls. Since the education deficit is concentrated
in the poor states (see footnote 1), the simulations group the Indian states as poor and
non-poor. In the first scenario, the specified characteristics in the poor states are
brought up to the national average. In the second scenario, they are brought up to the
average for the non-poor states. In the third scenario, they are increased at a specified rate per annum between 1999/2000 and 2015. The specified rate is set for each of the
nine variables in an ad hoc way, to illustrate the possibilities. The predicted outcomes
for 2015 get progressively more encouraging as one moves from the first to the third
scenario. The overall conclusion in this study is that attaining the MDG for education
is extremely unlikely in the poor states and, as a result, in India as a whole.
The parameter estimates obtained for 1999/2000 are used to simulate indicators of
school achievement in 2015 under three alternative scenarios. All of these involves an
assumed change in each of nine predictor variables that were significant in the
estimated model. Consider the attendance equation. Here, these are adult schooling
amongst men and women, household consumption, annual public expenditure on
elementary education per 6-14 year-old child, and the following indicators of districtlevel
conditions: village access to pucca roads and electricity, the number of primary
schools per 1,000 children, the pupil-teacher ratio at the primary level, and crimes
against (kidnappings of) women and girls. Since the education deficit is concentrated
in the poor states (see footnote 1), the simulations group the Indian states as poor and
non-poor. In the first scenario, the specified characteristics in the poor states are
brought up to the national average. In the second scenario, they are brought up to the
average for the non-poor states. In the third scenario, they are increased at a specified rate per annum between 1999/2000 and 2015. The specified rate is set for each of the
nine variables in an ad hoc way, to illustrate the possibilities. The predicted outcomes
for 2015 get progressively more encouraging as one moves from the first to the third
scenario. The overall conclusion in this study is that attaining the MDG for education
is extremely unlikely in the poor states and, as a result, in India as a whole.
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