Regression analysis is one of the statistical methods used for developing models for prediction of energy consumption in buildings.
This paper presents relevant information to understand and apply linear regression analysis for application on the residential sector with focus on whole-building energy consumption in single-family homes. The energy signatures and conditional demand analysis are also discussed for better understanding of the use of practical applications of regression analysis for residential energy consumption prediction. The literature review of papers dealing specifically with residential energy consumption using regression analysis supports the feasibility of this statistical approach for model development. The basics of simple and multiple linear regression analysis were applied to data from the TxAIRE Research and Demonstration House #1, as a case study, to illustrate an example of results from regression analysis. As illustrated from the results of the case study, as the time interval of the observed data increases, the quality of the models improves. This is explained by the fact that for longer time periods, the discrepancies among individual effects in shorter time periods are averaged over longer time periods. The solar radiation as a second predictor variable shows improvement of the coefficient of determination, but deteriorates the root mean square error, which justifies the importance of using both parameters to assess the quality of the model based on the developer's criteria. Since HVAC systems accounts for a large portion of the total energy consumption of buildings, and because the performance of HVAC systems can be modeled as a second order polynomial, a quadratic regression model can offer better results for shorter time intervals such as an hour. This is not necessarily true for longer time periods such as a day because the quadratic trend of the HVAC system is lost
วิเคราะห์การถดถอยเป็นหนึ่งของวิธีการทางสถิติที่ใช้ในการพัฒนาแบบจำลองสำหรับทำนายการใช้พลังงานในอาคาร This paper presents relevant information to understand and apply linear regression analysis for application on the residential sector with focus on whole-building energy consumption in single-family homes. The energy signatures and conditional demand analysis are also discussed for better understanding of the use of practical applications of regression analysis for residential energy consumption prediction. The literature review of papers dealing specifically with residential energy consumption using regression analysis supports the feasibility of this statistical approach for model development. The basics of simple and multiple linear regression analysis were applied to data from the TxAIRE Research and Demonstration House #1, as a case study, to illustrate an example of results from regression analysis. As illustrated from the results of the case study, as the time interval of the observed data increases, the quality of the models improves. This is explained by the fact that for longer time periods, the discrepancies among individual effects in shorter time periods are averaged over longer time periods. The solar radiation as a second predictor variable shows improvement of the coefficient of determination, but deteriorates the root mean square error, which justifies the importance of using both parameters to assess the quality of the model based on the developer's criteria. Since HVAC systems accounts for a large portion of the total energy consumption of buildings, and because the performance of HVAC systems can be modeled as a second order polynomial, a quadratic regression model can offer better results for shorter time intervals such as an hour. This is not necessarily true for longer time periods such as a day because the quadratic trend of the HVAC system is lost
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