Post 2020, the outlook for Southeast Asia’s oil supply deteriorates as there is an ongoing,
gradual decline in production, mainly by reduced output in Indonesia, Thailand and
Viet Nam. The assumed start of coal-to-liquids production (in Indonesia) and natural gas
liquids (NGLs) output are able to slow, but not fully offset, the decline of crude oil
production (Figure 3.3). The region’s total oil production is set to account for less than 2%
of global supply in 2040, down from 2.7% in 2014 and 3.8% in 2001. The vast bulk of the
production by the end of the Outlook period comes from new fields which are yet to be
brought online, as the majority of the major existing fields are already in decline. The
trends and the drivers vary from country to country, but the overall result is that by 2040
oil production remains concentrated in the two largest oil-producing countries, Indonesia
and Malaysia, with their combined share rising a few percentage points to reach almost
two-thirds of the total.