This paper investigates the relation between the extent of a firm’s past and
expected future losses or negative cash flows and the ex ante probability that it will
manipulate revenues. When a firm has a string of losses or negative cash flows, traditional
valuation models do not yield reliable estimates of firm value, and traditional
price-earnings ratios are not meaningful. Evidence suggests that market participants
tend to value loss firms on the basis of the level and growth in revenues, rather than
cash flows and earnings, thereby motivating these firms to overstate revenue. In fact,
empirical results indicate that there is a positive relation between the number of years
that firms exhibit and/or anticipate losses or negative cash flows and investment in
receivables after controlling for credit policy. We further show that the ex ante likelihood
that firms manipulate revenue in violation of GAAP is positively associated with the
history of past and expected future losses or negative cash flows, as well as with the
investment in accounts receivable adjusted for credit policy. Our results suggest another
indicator of manipulation that may be used by auditors and regulators in identifying
firms that are more likely to overstate revenues.