On the fundamental side, there has been some good rainfall in cane-growing regions of Brazil, which should help the dry cane, but must be carefully balanced with expected stoppages. In India, rainfall has begun to catch up with the monsoon, narrowing the gap between expected and actual precipitation, which could weigh on the market. The other element that should be important to watch moving forward is the macro situation in the markets, as stock markets and some commodities – particularly corn and wheat – are whipped around over tensions in Ukraine and Israel. Also important to keep an eye on the Brazilian real, which tightened significantly today (by 1%) on news that President Dilma’s re-election lead was narrowing.Continuing poor election news for Dilma should continue to tighten the real, which should lend some real support to the sugar markets. And of course, always on the market’s mind on a Friday, chatter today centered on the Commitment of Traders’ report. Most expect that the spec long liquidation will continue, with guesses mostly between flat and 20,000 net long. Technically, the market still looks quite bearish, with MACD, parabolics, and ADX all suggesting a strengthening, continuing bear trend. But we seem to be finding some support at 16.93, where we bounced off the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. Breaking this would open a path much lower.