Kampala, the capital of Uganda, is one of the fastest growing African cities with annual growth rates
of 5.6%. The rapid urban growth causes major socio-economic and environmental problems that lower
the quality of life of the urban dwellers. A better insight in the controlling factors of the urban growth
pattern is necessary to develop and implement a sustainable urban planning. The recent urban growth of
Kampala was mapped using LANDSAT images of 1989, 1995, 2003 and 2010. A spatially-explicit logistic
regression model was developed for Kampala. Significant predictors in this model included: the presence
of roads, the accessibility of the city centre and the distance to existing built-up area. These variables are
used as steering handles to create future urban scenarios. Three alternative scenarios for future urban
growth were developed: a business as usual, restrictive and stimulative scenario. Our model of growth
was applied to these three scenarios to predict patterns of urban growth to 2030. The scenarios show
that the alternative policy options result in contrasting future urban sprawl patterns with a significant
impact on the local quality of life.