A number of factors will influence how these
questions are answered in the next two
decades:
• The intent of China’s leadership and its
ability to sustain the implementation of
decisions made;
• The economic policy choices made,
including the degree of liberalization and
openness;
• The extent to which social stability can be
maintained and popular expectations
managed;
• The reaction of other global actors to
China’s rise, and the broader geopolitical
situation.
Based on these factors and core questions,
three scenarios emerge for “China and the
World” over the next 20 years. The different
paths for China through to 2025 are
represented in figure 1.