The overriding finding of the LUCID land use changes analyses is how rapidly farming and agro-pastoral systems have changed.
Small-scale farmers and pastoralists have changed their entire system several times since the 1950's.
New land uses have been developed, and existing land uses have been transformed.
In sum, the most significant land use changes have been:
1.an expansion of cropping into grazing areas, particularly in the semi-arid to sub-humid areas,
2.an expansion of rainfed and irrigated agriculture in wetlands or along streams especially in semi-arid areas,
3.a reduction in size of many woodland and forests on land that is not protected
4.an intensification of land use in areas already under crops in the more humid areas, and
5.the maintenance of natural vegetation in most protected areas.
these changes have allowed many more people to live on the land as farmers and agro-pastoralists, and the systems have shown flexibility and adaptability in face of changing international and national economic and political structures.
farm income, has been a critical means for households to reduce their risk in face of these changes.
Diversification, towards a mixture of crops and livestock, cash and food crops, and farm and non-
Amid the complexity of socio-economic and environmental driving forces of the land use changes across space and time, six factors appear to explain a large part of the dynamics of land use change in East Africa:
1. Government policy , laws and regulations
2. Economic factors
3. Population growth and migration
4. Changes in land tenure arrangements
5. Access to markets
6. Environmental conditions
Despite the rapid evolution of systems responding to these forces, rural poverty is common and key environmental resources are becoming increasingly scarce, contested and/or degraded.
The LUCID team found that poverty, poor land management and land degradation are much more common and persistent in marginal environments, especially, the remote, semi-arid zones.
Even in the most productive, highly managed zones, however, the variation between households in levels of soil management and productivity is important.
A common pattern emerged of how the lack of household resources affects investment on the land.
Poorer households make significantly fewer investments due to the lack of labour and capital, and fewer farm and non-farm resources.
The variability between households is closely related to the number of adults in the household and the gender of the acting head of household.
Gender disparities reinforce the already precarious situation of poverty.
The apparent spiral relationship between poverty and degradation is, however, not irreversible.
Over time, as the agricultural sector becomes more profitable and other conditions more favourable, farmers increasingly invest in soil management.
Policies and programs may have a large impact during this transition period, when returns to investment in the soil may be met in the short to medium term.
In the more marginal, semi-arid zones, herding systems have experienced multiple chronic pressures to alter land use.
These have resulted in reduced access by herders to vital grazing and water resources, and competition over resources between herders, farmers and wildlife.
Livelihood systems for many herders have become less sustainable.
The relative profitability of cropping has resulted in many herders settling and diversifying into farming.
Herd size and composition have altered, towards smaller herds with a higher proportion of shoats(shoals).
In general, herders who have successfully diversified manage risk better and have become wealthier those that have not.
Under both pastoralism and agro-pastoralism, patterns of land use have changed with implications for grazing intensity, fire practices, native plant species composition, and the number and distribution of wildlife.
Many of the rainfed crops in the drier zone are not intensely cultivated, however, due to low returns.
The crops are often of low value, and risks of drought and pests are high.
The semi-arid zones are in danger of worsening soil degradation and poverty due to the expansion of cropping into environmentally fragile and climatically risky areas.
Indeed, there are signs of farmers switching to crops more tolerant of degraded soils, and the rate of expansion of cropping into semi-arid zones has slowed in the Kenyan and Tanzanian study sites.
The contraction of grazing orbits and concentration of livestock occurring in some areas could also lead to a degradation of pasture and soil, continued shrinking of family herd sizes and poverty for those without alternative income sources.
Out-migration is common among men of the poorest families.
The situation is thus critical in semi-arid areas --- where the marginality and vulnerability of the human and environmental systems overlap and are currently in the processes of worsening.
Among the policy implications provide in this report’s conclusion is that there is a great potential for more effective communication and dialogue between scientists, and between scientists and policy-makers.
Much could be gained, for example, by the sharing of land use change findings by researchers working in different regions of a country, perhaps during seminars organized by universities or national environmental agencies.
Policy has been an important driver of land use change, but the analyses demonstrated that unintended outcomes often later emerge as policy effects reverberate through the system.
This suggests that policy-making effectiveness would be enhanced by the adoption of a comprehensive framework and a multi-sectoral discussion of policy objectives, design and strategy.
In addition to improved technical approaches to land management and cross-sectoral policies, it is clear that local questions concerning changing access to land and water resources, competition over resources, and the poverty/ degradation relationship also need to be targeted in a participatory, long-term sustainable land management process.