Executive Summary
World total grains output is expected to decline slightly in 2014/15, from the record
level forecast for the current season, but then to rise by an average of 1.6% p.a. over
the remainder of the five-year period, exceeding 2 billion tons by 2016/17. While some
area expansion is anticipated, particularly in the major exporters such as the CIS and
Brazil, the increase is largely driven by improving productivity. Firm demand growth is
also expected and, while the absolute level of stocks is likely to rise, the ratio of stocks
to use is projected to fall slightly to 18% by the end of the 2018/19, from 20% forecast
for 2013/14. The projections indicate a marked increase in trade volumes over the
five years, as increased demand is met by production growth in the key exporters,
most notably in South America and the Black Sea
region.
Executive SummaryWorld total grains output is expected to decline slightly in 2014/15, from the recordlevel forecast for the current season, but then to rise by an average of 1.6% p.a. overthe remainder of the five-year period, exceeding 2 billion tons by 2016/17. While somearea expansion is anticipated, particularly in the major exporters such as the CIS andBrazil, the increase is largely driven by improving productivity. Firm demand growth isalso expected and, while the absolute level of stocks is likely to rise, the ratio of stocksto use is projected to fall slightly to 18% by the end of the 2018/19, from 20% forecastfor 2013/14. The projections indicate a marked increase in trade volumes over thefive years, as increased demand is met by production growth in the key exporters,most notably in South America and the Black Searegion.
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