where, l11 is the percentage of people who voted for NDC in the 1992 PE that also voted for the same party in the 1996 PE. Similar, explanations holds for lij, ∀i, j = 1, 2, 3, 4. For the use of MC analysis, the following assumptions were made:
1. Everyone who voted in the preceding election year voted in the following election year. 2. There is an equal probability for voting for another party in the following election year provided you did not vote for these parties in the preceding election year. 3. Other parties which did not take part in run-off elections were recorded zero. 4. There is no rejected votes in all run-off elections
Based on the first assumption,
where, l11 is the percentage of people who voted for NDC in the 1992 PE that also voted for the same party in the 1996 PE. Similar, explanations holds for lij, ∀i, j = 1, 2, 3, 4. For the use of MC analysis, the following assumptions were made:1. Everyone who voted in the preceding election year voted in the following election year. 2. There is an equal probability for voting for another party in the following election year provided you did not vote for these parties in the preceding election year. 3. Other parties which did not take part in run-off elections were recorded zero. 4. There is no rejected votes in all run-off electionsBased on the first assumption,
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