Impact
Beginning in 1999-00, South American soybean
production and exports clearly began to impact the
relationship between the U.S. stocks/use ratio and price
(Figure 16). The average 2002 October price of the
Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) November soybean
futures contract was $5.47 when USDA’s October stocks/
use estimate was 6.5 percent. Stocks this tight in the past
have warranted at least $6 in the futures.
Several more years of data are needed to develop a
new, more accurate relationship between stock/use and
price. For now, the graph in Figure 16 can only serve as
an approximation to prices. A projected price may need
to be discounted by $1-$1.50, depending on development
of the South American crop.
The U.S. seasonal price pattern for soybeans may
also be influenced by the increased export competition
from South America (Figure 17). But, recent price
patterns do not provide evidence of a change. Prices
peaked during May 2000 and during July 2001 and 2002.
Under favorable growing conditions in South America
and the United States, however, a price peak by midMarch would be expected, about the time that South
American exports begin to intensify.