To explore farmers’ perceptions further, dry spell thresholds were identified for various stages
of the crop, as illustrated in Table 4.2. In the high Barind areas, the threshold dry spell lengths,
meaning the number of consecutive days without rain, varies considerably with respect to stages
of growth. On average, a dry spell of five to seven days is considered mild drought at seedling
and flowering stages, but in the vegetative state, it is seven to eight days. At flowering stage,
the community considers a rainless period of more than 12 days to be a severe drought
that could reduce crop yield by up to 40 percent. This analysis needs to be compared with
agro-meteorological analysis using long-term rainfall data and projected climate change.
Understanding of local thumb rules and local perceptions is necessary to identify a suitable
adaptation practice that fits within the rules.
The climate risk analysis is the prerequisite for developing viable adaptation options to manage
future anticipated risks. Once the analysis is done, the next step is to identify and prioritize the
local adaptation options and test them through demonstration and implementation at local levels.