Jim quickly called his senior management team in for a meeting, explained the situation, and asked for their help in formulating a solution. The group concluded that if the company’s current business plan were carried out, Garden State’s sales would grow by 10 percent from 2006 to 2007 and by another 15 percent from 2007 to 2008. Further, they concluded that Garden State should reverse its recent policy of aggressive pricing and easy credit, returning to pricing that fully covered costs plus normal profit margins and to standard industry credit practices. These changes should enable the company to reduce the cost of goods sold from over 85 percent of sales in 2006 to about 82.5 percent to 2007 and then to 80 percent in 2008. Similarly, the management group felt that the company could reduce administrative and selling expenses from almost 9 percent of sales in 2006 to 8 percent in 2007 and then to 7.5 percent in 2008. Significant cuts should also be possible in miscellaneous expenses, which should fall from 2.92 percent of 2006 sales to approximately 1.75 percent of sales in 2007 and to 1.25 percent in 2008. These cost reductions represented “trimming the fat,” so they were not expected to degrade the quality of the firm’s products or the effectiveness of its sales efforts. Further, to appease suppliers, future bills would be paid more promptly, and to convince the bank how serious management is about correcting the company’s problems, cash dividends would be eliminated until the firm regains its financial health.
Assume that Jim has hired you as a consultant to first verify the bank’s evaluation of the company’s current financial situation and then to put together a forecast of Garden State’s expected performance for 2007 and 2008. Jim asks you to develop some figures that ignore the possibility of a reduction in the credit lines and that assume the bank will increase the line of credit by the $12,750,000 needed for the expansion and supporting working capital. Also, you and Jim do not expect the level of interest rates to change substantially over the two-year forecast period; however, you both think that the bank will charge 12 percent on both the additional short-term loan, if it is granted, and on the existing short-term loans, if they are extended. The assumed 40 percent combined federal federal and state tax rate should also hold for two years. Finally, if the bank cooperates, and if Jim is able to turn the company around, the P/E ratio should be 12 in 2007 and should rise to 14 in 2008.
Your first task is to construct a set of pro forma financial statements that Jim and the rest of the Garden State management team can use to assess the company’s position and also to convince Martha that bank’s loan is safe, provided the bank will extend the firm’s line of credit. Then, you must present you projections, with recommendations for future action, to Garden State’s management and to Martha. To prepare for your presentation, answer the following questions, keeping in mind that the Garden State’s management and, particularly, Martha and her bosses, could ask you some tough questions about your analysis and recommendations. Put another way, the following questions are designed to help you focus on the issues, but they are not meant to be a complete and exhaustive list of all the relevant points