Despite evidence that the economy hit a turning point in the second half of 2015, Russia is expected to have experienced its worst contraction in 2015 since the global financial crisis took its toll in 2009. Structural weakness, coupled with international sanctions and lower oil prices caused the economy to collapse last year. Another year of recession is expected for 2016 when GDP is projected to contract 0.2%. Although less severe than in 2015, the recession will also reflect weak economic fundamentals and low oil prices. Negative risks to the outlook could arise from growing geopolitical tensions in Ukraine, Turkey and the Middle East. For 2017, analysts see the economy recovering gradually to a 1.6% expansion.