The economic globalisation means increased flows of trade and foreign direct investments between countries thanks to a decrease in import barriers, taxes and capital restrictions;
When estimating the further development of globalisation, it seems appropriate to take a look at the future development of world economics. The latest release of the Prognos Deutschland Report 2014 gives some insight into itsdevelopment 2012-2040. According to these forecasts, the contribution of the five strongest economic regions in the world to the global growth will be as follows:
- China will contribute with 31.8%;
- US with 22.9%;
- Europe with 16.8%;
- India with 8.4%;
- Brazil with 4.9%.
Given these developments, in particular the dominance of China, it seems obvious that the economic growth of China could not only be based on foreign trade, but on China/Asia internal trade to a growing extent;
The EU participation in the global economic development will decrease in the long run, mainly due to the negative development of population leading to reduced GDP growth rates (e.g. the EU will grow by an average of 1.7% per year 2012-2040 compared to 3.0% in the past (2000-2012), whereas the US will grow by 2.2% over the whole forecasting period;
In addition to that, the degree of openness defined as Imports + Exports/GDP of the EU will lose its dynamic in the future;
To conclude, one can assume that globalisation in the sense of international trade will most probably continue in the future, but will not reach the dynamic growth of the past anymore.