The empirical investigation conducted in this paper, covering the period from 1999 to 2011and based on structural VECM, has shown that the Euro area inflation can be interpreted as the stochastic trend component, and hence as a long-run predictor of the national inflation rates, only for a small number of Euro area countries. In other words, there is a dominant result of divergence in the evolution of Eurozone inflation differentials. Exceptions are represented by France, Italyand Belgium.
The comparison of the Euro area with the other important currency area, i.e. the USA, reveals that there is a greater convergence in the US regional inflation dynamics, since three out of the four great areas which compose the monetary union exhibit stationarity in the inflation differentials. More over, the volatility in inflation differentials is lower in the USA.
The empirical investigation conducted in this paper, covering the period from 1999 to 2011and based on structural VECM, has shown that the Euro area inflation can be interpreted as the stochastic trend component, and hence as a long-run predictor of the national inflation rates, only for a small number of Euro area countries. In other words, there is a dominant result of divergence in the evolution of Eurozone inflation differentials. Exceptions are represented by France, Italyand Belgium.The comparison of the Euro area with the other important currency area, i.e. the USA, reveals that there is a greater convergence in the US regional inflation dynamics, since three out of the four great areas which compose the monetary union exhibit stationarity in the inflation differentials. More over, the volatility in inflation differentials is lower in the USA.
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