Pan (2003) and Poksinska et al. (2003) had already demonstrated that many of the
reasons why companies seek certification and the benefits obtained from certification
are the same for both the ISO 9000 and the ISO 14000, despite it being evident that the
objectives of each series of standards are completely different. However, in terms of
diffusion, it was unknown until now whether or not the two standards followed the
same parameters.
It should be pointed out that the available data were incomplete, especially for ISO
14000, which is one of the limitations of the study. Nevertheless, we believe that the
methodology presented can be generalized across a broad variety of contexts.
In this paper, it has been demonstrated that, world wide, the expansion of both the
ISO 14000 and ISO 9000 standards have followed very similar patterns of diffusion.
The ISO 9000 standard, much more popular and older, is at 68.7 percent of its
saturation point and will presumably reach it towards 2007. The ISO 14000 standard,
which began to be implemented some years later, is spreading at a much greater speed,
although with the same pattern of growth: the pattern established by the logistic curve.
For this reason, it has currently reached nearly the same relative level as ISO 9000 and
is forecasted, according to the model proposed here, to reach 95 percent saturation in
2006.
According to the model proposed, both standards have currently reached an
important moment in their maturity: about two-thirds of their limit. Also, when we
analyze the presence of these standards in the different economic sectors, more signs of
their maturity are to be seen. On one hand, both are developing towards smaller indices
of concentration and, on the other, there are fewer and fewer fluctuations in the sectors’
positions in the rankings of certifications (the rates of instability for both standards tend
towards smaller values). From the analysis of individual countries, we also observed
that in the United States there is still a long way to go before the ISO 14000 standard
begins to fully mature, with an index of saturation currently at only 50 percent.
Furthermore, we can conclude from this study that both standards spread in similar
ways among the economic sectors: those sectors that were leaders or pioneers in the
introduction of the ISO 9000 standard, have played similar galvanizing roles in the case
of the ISO 14000 standard. We can, therefore, confirm the hypothesis established
by some authors, according to whom the unprecedented surge in the progress of
the ISO 9000 standard has been an important factor in explaining the surge in the
ISO 14000 standard (Mendel, 2001), a hypothesis already partly confirmed by a study
of a more general nature by Corbett and Kirsch (2001).
Regarding the limitations of this type of analysis of prediction based
on mathematical models, it should be said that they are studies based solely on
endogenous factors of growth and that, therefore, they have important limitations,
such as not taking into consideration the development of exogenous factors to the
actual process of growth of the standards, which may include, for example, a
radical division or change in tendencies at a particular moment during its progress.
Among other external factors that could be mentioned are new government policies
actively promoting implementation and certification in a particular country via grants
and incentives, the issuing of a new version of some of the standards (as has been the
case with ISO 9000), or successful entry into the market of another standard or
substitute model.
Another important event that could not have been analyzed is the impact of the new
release of the ISO 9000 standard, ISO 9001:2000, published at the end of the year 2000.
We need more time to calibrate this effect.
Nevertheless, we believe that the results of this investigation may be relevant to
those institutions and organizations involved with this type of certification:
accreditation organizations, certifying bodies as well as the business consultants
specializing in the implementation of these systems.
On the other hand, we also consider these empirical conclusions to be of interest
from a strictly academic point of view, particularly for the line of research analyzing
the diffusion and adoption of ideas, models, systems and tools of business
management. We have demonstrated that these management tools spread following a
logistic or S-shaped curve and that, in addition, they follow very similar parameters in
all the cases analyzed. The question arises, however, as to why? Does this evidence
confirm the theory of management fashions? Can this model be applied generally to the
process of diffusion of other management standards, or to other types of organizational
and management innovations? Can the diffusion of management innovations be
compared to product diffusion in line with the well-known service life cycle? And why
do certain members of a social system adopt innovations before others? In short, in our
view, the empirical statements gathered in this paper will lead to new questions and
hypotheses that should provide further study of interest in the future.