In t rend No. 3, I descr ibed the shift from the annual
budget to rolling financial forecasts using dr iver-based
resources expense modeling methods that calculate a
sing le-point profit forecast. In some cases, three scenar ios
may be projected using best-case, baseline, and worst-case
assumptions for a few var iables, such as sales volume. But
why stop w ith three and just a few var iables? Why not
estimate on a r ange of se ven estimates for a dozen var i-ables assumptions (such as mater ial pr ices or labor
wages)? With 7 12, then 84 projections and r ank-order
can be displayed in a profit dist r ibution g r aph. An exam-ple is in Figure 1, which moves understanding from possi-bilities to probabilities. With such a dist r ibution cur ve,
analysts can better understand what factors most lead to
hig her profits (other than the obv ious sales volume and
product mix) and apply sensitiv it y analysis to better
understand which var iables (dr ivers) mig ht be increased
or decreased to improve over all profits.
T here are dozens of other examples w here analy t ics
can supp or t the management a ccount ing func t ion we l l
b e yond simple and pr imit ive r at io analysis, such as sales
exp ense as a p ercentage of sales, inventor y tur n r at ios,
and re tur n on e quit y (ROE). Analy t ics is here to stay. T he
buzz ab out “data scient ists” isn’t hy p e. Trend No. 4 re co g-nizes that pro g ressive a ccount ing func t ions now realize
that comp e tency and capabilit ies w ith analy t ics prov ides
a comp e t it ive e dge.
In t rend No. 3, I descr ibed the shift from the annual
budget to rolling financial forecasts using dr iver-based
resources expense modeling methods that calculate a
sing le-point profit forecast. In some cases, three scenar ios
may be projected using best-case, baseline, and worst-case
assumptions for a few var iables, such as sales volume. But
why stop w ith three and just a few var iables? Why not
estimate on a r ange of se ven estimates for a dozen var i-ables assumptions (such as mater ial pr ices or labor
wages)? With 7 12, then 84 projections and r ank-order
can be displayed in a profit dist r ibution g r aph. An exam-ple is in Figure 1, which moves understanding from possi-bilities to probabilities. With such a dist r ibution cur ve,
analysts can better understand what factors most lead to
hig her profits (other than the obv ious sales volume and
product mix) and apply sensitiv it y analysis to better
understand which var iables (dr ivers) mig ht be increased
or decreased to improve over all profits.
T here are dozens of other examples w here analy t ics
can supp or t the management a ccount ing func t ion we l l
b e yond simple and pr imit ive r at io analysis, such as sales
exp ense as a p ercentage of sales, inventor y tur n r at ios,
and re tur n on e quit y (ROE). Analy t ics is here to stay. T he
buzz ab out “data scient ists” isn’t hy p e. Trend No. 4 re co g-nizes that pro g ressive a ccount ing func t ions now realize
that comp e tency and capabilit ies w ith analy t ics prov ides
a comp e t it ive e dge.
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