Looking ahead, the majority of the respondents from
Thailand (64.9%) believe that the economy is likely to
improve in 2016. This is in line with Coface’s
expectations.
The Thai economy is forecast to grow at a modestly
faster pace this year, at 3.0%, compared to 2.8% in
2015. This forecast is supported by (i) expansionary
monetary policies amid deflation (which will probably
fall well below the Bank of Thailand’s target range of
1% to 4%) (Graph 16) and (ii) fiscal stimuli, with some
mega public-private partnership projects such as the
Mass Rapid Transit network (pink line, yellow line and
extension of the blue line) to be kick-started this year.
That being said, the risks are likely to remain on the
downside, as cyclical indicators, such as the private
investment index and customs exports (Graph 17), did
not pick up in Q1 2016 compared to 2015. This was in
part due to the “Japanisation” of the global economy.