In these notes I sketch the essence of this view and of the main policy
recommendations that follow from it. However, these are largely uncharted
waters. My discussion has plenty of conjectures anchored by spotty academic
work. Much of the research needed to understand what got us to this point,
how to manage a global economy of this nature, and ultimately how to grow
out it, if this is perceived to be necessary, lies ahead.
This introduction is followed by four short sections. Section 2 sketches the
macroeconomic consequences and policy lessons of endemic asset shortages
in emerging market economies. Section 3 discusses the global counterpart,
where equilibrium considerations play a central role, and argues that low
interest rates and inflation rates, as well as high (speculative) valuations, are
all market-based mechanism to rebuild asset supply. It also warns on the
deflationary consequences of chasing bubbles, and proposes instead to focus
on the risk management of high valuation equilibria. Section 4 discusses the
role of a lender of last resort in reducing net collateral demand. Section 5
concludes and is followed by a short appendix.