If we consider that activity duration and cost estimates do not depend on each other the probability to meet
both targets will be the multiplication of the probabilities to achieve the targets. However these parameters are
correlated and setting multiple project targets will require multidimensional risk analysis. For this reason, our
analysis took into consideration the following parameters variation during execution: the duration and cost
buffers, the position of the pair of values representing the target duration and cost related to the centroid of the
iterations results, the distance between the centroid and the target dates, the correlation between the project
duration and cost and the proposed risk index (Fig. 5).
During the project execution, risks events like delays due to the lack of resources, weather, over costs and
unforeseeable events occurs, impacting the current probability to achieve the target duration and cost. The
variation of probabilities for target duration, cost and combined probability duration-cost is presented in the table
2.