Abstract
Results from a vector autoregression show that oil prices and oil price volatility both play
important roles in affecting real stock returns. There is evidence that oil price dynamics
have changed. After 1986, oil price movements explain a larger fraction of the forecast error
variance in real stock returns than do interest rates. There is also evidence that oil price
volatility shocks have asymmetric effects on the economy. Q 1999 Elsevier Science B.V. All
rights reserved.