This research was supported by Mistra through a core grant to the Stockholm Resilience Centre at Stockholm University. Support was also provided by the “Baltic Ecosystem Adaptive Management (BEAM)” and “Regime shifts in the Baltic Sea Ecosystem – Modelling complex adaptive ecosystems and governance implications” projects, funded by FORMAS. Margit Eero, Tim Daw and two anonymous reviewers gave constructive comments on earlier versions of this manuscript. References