3. Development of the model
3.1. Conceptual framework
AgFutures describes the impacts of human choices on future land-use changes and the
social, economic and environmental consequences of different choices related to land-use
policies, diet patterns, agricultural intensification and management practices.
The model was built with a strong emphasis on the integrated nature of the systems in
question. Fig. 2 illustrates the modeling framework, including main components of the
model along with required inputs and the methods used in the research. Model inputs
represent environmental and socio-economic factors that affect or drive the development
of agriculture. The values of some of these parameters are affected in the model by
scenarios defined by the users. The model consists of two major components: land-use
evolution and impact assessment. The land-use evolution component simulates plausible
changes/conversions in land-use up to the year 2040 and predicts how much, and where
Fig. 2. Framework of AgFutures model.