The implementation of the ECB monetary policy rests on two pillars (European Central
Bank, 2011). The first pillar, the monetary policy strategy, determines the interest rate
appropriate to achieving price stability. This is defined as a rate of inflation which over the
medium term should remain “below but close to 2 per cent”.
7 According to this definition,
not only inflation above 2%, but also excessively low inflation or outright deflation (which is
a self-sustaining fall in the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP)), are incompatible
with price stability. The target refers to the year-on-year increase in the HICP, an index –
calculated by Eurostat in liaison with national statistical offices – that has been harmonised
across the eurozone countries to closely approximate the price of a representative basket of
consumer expenditure.
The ECB monetary strategy aims at firmly anchoring inflation expectations, based on a
“consistent and systematic method for conducting monetary policy”8 with a medium-term
reference time horizon, and clear and open communication to the public of its goals and the
underlying analysis. However, while the inflation forecast is central in the policy analysis
and discussions, both within the ECB governing bodies and public presentations, the ECB
does not adhere to a formal inflation targeting strategy – entailing quasi-automatic reactions
to deviations of forecast inflation from the target over a predetermined time horizon. Rather,
it bases its actions on a more flexible strategy both as regards the economic variables taken
into consideration and the relevant time horizon for responding to shocks in the economy.
Thus, in assessing the appropriate response to a price shock or an emerging threat to price
stability, the sources and the nature of the shock may entail different responses. In this
context, the ECB has always included financial stability among the factors to be taken into
consideration, owing to the potential impact of financial imbalances on output and price
developments. Therefore, while there is no formal targeting of monetary aggregates