Recession. The European economy or portions of it tumbles. Recession-ravaged countries regions and groups weary of stagnation-demand that the ECB help them. Monetary hardlinerswary of inflation-insist that the recession is a local problem or a necessary corrective and that the inflationary alternative is far worse. If the ECB responds to those in trouble with expansion foreign-exchange traders could desert the euro, causing a debilitating currency crisis. If the ECB holds firm, its resolve could cause a political backlash aimed at reining the central bank or otherwise altering European policy.