Asia’s other growing giant, India, will witness one of the fastest growth rates in CIB—15 to 17 percent annually over the next five years. While India’s revenue pools today are still relatively small, this growth will dramatically increase India’s relevance, with the country’s wholesale banking revenues becoming as large as Australia’s. Continued large-scale investment in infrastructure, a vibrant mid-market client base, and the growth of Indian multinational corporations (MNCs) are likely to be major revenue drivers.
The diverse financial markets of Southeast Asia will also grow faster than their economies on the back of substantial infrastructure investment and further regional integration. However, Vietnam and Indonesia should still punch below their potential, as their banking sectors remain overly fragmented and await deeper reforms.
At the opposite end of the development scale, the advanced infrastructure of the two pan-Asian financial hubs, Hong Kong and Singapore, means that they will be prime beneficiaries of global banks’ focus shifting to Asia.