Assumption analysis
Assumption analysis is a technique that is explicitly designed for ill-structured problems, in which multiple self-contained organizations are involved in sequential policymaking over time and in which the analyst must include other public policies that may affect problem definition. It attempts to synthesize conflicting assumptions about policy problems (Dunn 2008, 111). An example of other policies that might affect problem definition is the mandatory minimum sentencing laws for hard drug abuse that discriminate against African Americans and tend to fill up prisons (Washington Post 1997). In such cases, the analyst enters the actual fray needing to learn how assumptions have changed, along with problem definition actors, acronyms, and the real limits that any policy will face no matter how the problem is defined. For this, the policy analyst must have a strong sense of historical connections, be a good storyteller, and perhaps have an absurdist, Kafkaesque sense of humor to guard against being overwhelmed by petty detail