Strong performance across segments: Noble Group reported a headline net profit of US$152 million
(+269%) in 1Q14 accounting for 29%/32% of JPM/consensus full year estimates. Energy and MMO
segments delivered on the back of higher margins despite a drop in volumes during the quarter. Also, the
Agriculture segment saw lower operating losses Y/Y.
Strong volume growth with lower losses at Agri on better operating efficiency: The Agriculture segment
delivered 43% increase in sales volume - surpassing our already aggressive 30% growth estimate with the
ramp up of oilseeds crushing plants in Argentina on strong harvest and new plants in Ukraine, South Africa
and Brazil. The segment recorded a US$42 million loss as seasonally, sugar milling does not take place in
1Q so only maintenance costs were incurred and China crush margin was negative. However, losses were
narrower this quarter at just US$3.3/MT (1Q13: US$7.4/MT), as better operating efficiency has kicked in.
Management has also taken advantage of favorable forward sugar prices to lock in margins which will be
booked in later quarters and expects an EBIT profit for FY14 for sugar.
Energy segment saw a record high operating income on better margins: The segment’s strong
performance was driven primarily by improvement in operating margins across products and markets in Oil, Gas
& Power division, while the volumes remained stable (-2% Y/Y). Cold weather conditions in the Northern
Hemisphere leading to increased energy demand and growth coming in from the US ethanol blending market
were the two major contributors to the segment’s performance. As a result, segment’s overall operating margins
improved from US$12.3/MT in 1Q13 to US$15/MT in 1Q14 (+22% Y/Y). We maintain our US$10.5/MT
margin assumption for now as gas and power do not record any tonnage.
MMO also witnessed one of its strongest quarters till date: The segment’s operating income rose 367%
Y/Y to US$70 million on the back of higher 1Q14 operating margin (US$6.9/MT vs. US$1.1/MT in 1Q13) as a
result of successful product diversification and a portfolio build out of long term purchase agreements. The
segment also saw better margins by seizing high physical premiums for Aluminum to lock in a better margin.