get confused about this point and to get the analysis very tangled as a result. This confusion is encouraged by a commonsense way of speaking Alternative A look to be the best therefore let's proceed with it. But this way of speaking ignores a very important step. The complete formulation is Alternative A will very probably lead to out come which we judge to be the best. Applying criteria to the evaluation of outcomes and not of alternative A after all. with that judgment on the table it would be possible to look for other alternatives with a greater likelihood of producing.