with penumococci, several boundaries and weaknesses in modeling occur: only steady
state analysis possible; no dynamic implementation of herd immunity and replacement
effects; and no influence of changing demographic structure over time Therefore a
comparable ODE system was implemented and extended by population dynamics and
splitting the pneumococcal serotypes in groups depending on their behavior depending
on immunization. RESULTS: For standard immunization program implementation as
advocated by EPAR/EMEA it was possible to reproduce the behaviour of the Markovian-
Model with the ODE approach resulting in equivalent outcomes for validation.
Using ODE approach extensions the influence of population dynamic effects with and
without immunization is compared in detail. Using the mathematical theory for ODEs
stability and uniqueness of the implemented approach was shown. CONCLUSIONS:
The Markovian model can accurately describe the infection with pneumococcal bacteria
if proper data exists and if there is no need to use dynamic effects or feedbackloops.
The ODE model offers possibilities to implement additional dynamic methods,
which is essential to gather the real world dynamics.