measurement. That measurement gives you some clue about the underlying
reality.
I like to compare trading a stock through technical analysis to the actions
of an engineer who is in charge of a petroleum extraction rig. This engineer
is responsible for digging a deep hole and eventually hitting a target.
When drilling, the crew will encounter different types of ground texture; resistance
and friction will increase. They will also encounter changing heat
and pressure conditions. The engineer knows by experience that they will
need more than one instrument to understand what is happening to the rig
deep down in the hole. Similarly, traders need to use different tools when
analyzing a stock.
The market is very complex. It is, of course, different from what it was
100 years ago, but it is also more complex than even 15 years ago. Just look
at three key changes that have happened since then:
1. Communication speed has resulted in very quick price adjustments
to news. Markets are becoming more efficient, but also crowded with
many retail investors enjoying online communication.
2. Decimalization has changed the tactics of large players.
3. Hedge funds are bringing liquidity but also volatility (very large swings
of price and volume).
A trader needs tools that can handle these changes. Such tools therefore
need the following characteristics:
The tools need to catch the strategic moves using an analysis of the
accumulation/distribution tactics. Usually, institutional investors fragment
one large order into many small orders that can then be sent
undetected—this is called order fragmentation. Each small order will
then be executed in one or more market transactions. Although data
related to each transaction and each fragmented order is available, the
tools need to “reconstruct” the fragmented orders, using minute data
so that traders can have a better understanding of what institutional
players are up to.
The tools must be able to filter the noise out of the important signal.
(We will see later in the chapter that only 25 percent of the total exchanged
volume is responsible for 75 percent of the price changes.
You’d better know the direction of the 25 percent and not move against
the direction of these changes.)
The tools must tell you if the moves of the large players are significant
enough to induce a price change or to make or break a trend.
The tools must allow you to make volatility adjustments between price
and volume, which carry very different levels of volatility.