IV. DISCUSSIONThis method in simula

IV. DISCUSSION

This method in simulation and analysis for showing a relation for better prediction of real duration of projects was explained. However, it should be worth to note some points here:
x This paper presented as a relation for estimation of real duration of projects is based on the underlying assumption, presented in part II. It may that in many projects in different industries and different countries, such assumptions not to be true. In other words, many known and unknown parameters affect that underlying assumption and one should take care in generalizing final relation.
x The results are generated from some projects based on MSP with more than 70 tasks per project, but the probable effects of number of tasks on this study and its results can be followed as a further research.
x The results face to above limitations and one should take care in generalizing and using it, but this paper simply showed us a new methodology for finding better ways of real duration estimation of projects and there is a lot of space for further research in this area. The effect of number of tasks, precision of
estimation of duration of tasks in primary schedule, ratio of tasks who are out of time and other potential factors should be investigated.
x What has been presented was a try to have better forecasting of duration of project time and cost.

V. CONCLUSION

This article presented a new method for forecasting of duration of projects. Progress of more than 10 sample projects was simulated using the software developed in Visual Studio 2008 – Visual Basic .NET 2008 and Microsoft Office Project 2007 based on a try and error procedure, Scheduled Performance Index (SPI), Cost Performance Index (CPI), Cost Variance CV, Schedule Variance (SV) were selected as predictor variables and finally a formula based on analysis was presented. The results showed a strong relation between predictor variables and response and the final function could explain 95.4% of variation in response according to predictors. This method can be used in a wide range of projects, but in generalizing final relation one should be aware of its limitations.


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