The latest protest will use tactics from the same playbook. By paralyzing Bangkok , the movement's leaders hope to push the Yingluck administration into adopting a heavy-handed response, or to stir up violence among the government's Red Shirt supporters. They then intend to exploit the chaos to declare the government is unable to govern with legitimacy, and to provide a pretext for the conservative military to launch another coup. They know that they cannot win the February elections, so they will do all they can to prevent the polls from taking place.
If they succeed, this will further inflame the resentment of poorer Thais who believe their electoral aspirations are routinely ignored by the establishment. If they lose, they will almost certainly become even more disruptive in the months and years ahead, until the unacknowledged succession struggle plays out.
Either way, the prognosis for Thailand is depressingly bleak