pollution, coastal seas now suffer from warming, ocean acidification, and catastrophic weather events directly related to our
releases of greenhouse gases, particularly CO2 (Doney, 2010). The
deteriorating ecological capacity of coastal ecosystems to deliver
services directly impacts coastal communities that depend on
adjacent waters for their food and livelihoods.
Globally, tropical coastal seas share ecologies, environmental
problems and solutions, fall predominantly within developing
countries, and are home to more than one fifth of the global
population. Here, we use the most up-to-date demographic data
available to compute the number of people living within
100 km of a tropical coast, and the number expected there in
2050. We review current and projected trends in climate and
ocean chemistry to visualize the tropical environment at midcentury, and, because loss of corals is one of the major changes
occurring, we model the effects of loss of coral cover on fishery
productivity in reef waters. These analyses collectively reveal
how stresses on coastal seas will change and where priorities
for management should lie: Tropical coastal waters, already subject to widespread degradation, are going to deteriorate further in
their capacity to provide environmental goods and services unless
we substantially improve management. More of the same is not
enough.
Given this context, we explore technological issues in managing
coastal development, fisheries, aquaculture, and pollution, and
suggest ways to create a holistic management approach within
jurisdictions and across regions. In doing this, we recognize the
special challenges facing developing countries in providing for
development and food security, while also advancing biodiversity
conservation, as well as the imperative of building a management
regime that is responsive to a changing environment. Our approach
tailors solutions to communities’ specific socio-political circumstances, includes a new perspective on marine spatial planning,
and brings renewed attention to a suite of pernicious socioeconomic factors, including the fact that costs and benefits are
rarely distributed equitably across socio-economic classes (Daw
et al., 2011). These issues must be substantially remedied to
achieve real improvements in sustainability and quality of life for
millions of coastal people.