When a coin is tossed, or a well- b

When a coin is tossed, or a well- balanced die is rolled, or a card is chosen from a well-shuffled deck of cards, the different possible outcomes can usually be regarded as equally likely because of the nature of the process. However, when the problem is to guess whether an acquaintance will get married or whether a research project will be successful, the possible outcomes would not typically be considered to be equally likely, and a different method is needed for assigning probabilities to these outcomes.