One of three scenarios of Thailand

One of three scenarios of Thailand in the next 10 years shows that Thailand has a good chance of moving toward a creative society, and its development is likely to focus on self-reliance based on the creative economy concept.

Results of the project “Design Thailand 2019” were discussed on 21 April 2010 at a seminar held at the Rama Gardens Hotel in Bangkok by the Knowledge Network Institute of Thailand (KNIT) under the Foundation for the Promotion of Ministry of University Affairs, the APEC Center for Technology Foresight, the National Science, Technology, and Innovation Policy Office, and the Thai Public Broadcasting Service.

The seminar was told that Thailand has encountered impacts from the world economic fluctuations, social crises, and internal dilemmas over the past few years. In particular, it was badly affected by the world economic and financial crisis in 2008. KNIT served as a lead agency in creating various scenarios for Thailand after the crisis. It organized four scenario planning workshops under the Design Thailand 2019 project. The project came up with 10 scenarios, which were developed into three scenarios on the future of Thailand.

In the first scenario, sharp differences of views and severe political conflicts accumulate and expand from Bangkok to the provinces. This scenario is undesirable, so the nation needs preventive strategies to create social and cultural immunity, develop human resources, improve public sector management for greater public participation in politics, and narrow social gaps to enable people to have access to resources on an equal basis.

In the second scenario, which was considered the most desirable by the seminar participants, the country’s creative economy, involving the use of local capital in adding value to products and services, will be developed further, thus leading to the development of creative citizens in all groups of people. As a result, lifelong learning will be evident and educational institutions will adjust themselves as knowledge management units integrated with local wisdom. Political uncertainties in the past decade will reduce the role of the public sector while empowering civil society. People will have better understanding of coexistence in diversity. More special administrative zones will emerge as part of political innovation. The civic and academic sectors and the media will join the public sector in providing people with better understanding about democratic administration, which is different from what people today are familiar with. The Government’s Sufficiency Economy policy will lead to organic agriculture in all parts of the country. Self-reliant cooperatives will carry out “tree bank” projects to sell and buy carbon credits for local industrial and service sectors and foreign countries. The carbon credit trading will also become common among all groups of people.

In the third scenario, Thailand will experience major social and economic changes as a result of the realization of the ASEAN Community. The emerging market, BRIC, comprising Brazil, Russia, India, and China, will play an increasingly important role in the world economy. In Thailand, new economic centers will emerge and there will be more international communities, schools, and colleges. Cultural diplomacy will be conducted with countries in Indochina. Since this scenario is both desirable and undesirable in some of its aspects, Thailand needs to work out strategies for enhancing the country’s competitiveness, promoting international economic cooperation, strengthening internal security, and developing human resources.

Although the three scenarios reflect different dimensions of the future, they are linked with various events and tendencies that are evident in present-day society, so they may be useful for people involved in the work of preparing for the better future of Thailand.